Phil Barber

Sonoma County is unlikely to end its current stay-at-home order when it is set to expire the night of Jan. 9, Health Officer Dr. Sundari Mase said during her final public briefing of 2020.

As coronavirus spreads locally at the highest rate of the pandemic while parts of the state are struggling to provide enough hospital beds for patients, it’s no shock that Mase is less than optimistic about reopening in a week and a half.

That order, announced by California Gov. Gavin Newsom Dec. 3, ties the ability to gather in backyards and eat outdoors at restaurants to a region’s ICU bed availability. On Dec. 10, Sonoma and 10 other Bay Area counties preemptively adopted a collective stay-at-home order as the region approached the 15% availability threshold established by Newsom.

It’s hard to gain an accurate read on ICU capacity, a measure that can be fluid based on staffing and contingency plans. But the most up-to-date data from the California Department of Public Health shows Sonoma County with 20 available staffed ICU beds as of Tuesday. The county is licensed for 77 ICU beds, though that number can be lower based on available staffing.

Twenty available beds would put local hospitals above the 15% mark. But Mase said the overall Bay Area availability rate is at 7.5%, giving Sonoma and the other 10 counties little chance of escaping what many refer to as a “lockdown.”

While Sonoma County hospital officials insist there are no current shortages of beds or staffing at their facilities, most of the metrics have gotten considerably worse since Mase issued the local order three weeks ago. In the 19 days following her announcement on Dec. 10, the county reported 3,170 new coronavirus cases, or 16.8% of all cases since the start of the pandemic. The daily average since Dec. 10 has been 242. Before then, Sonoma County exceeded that number just two days in seven months.

Even the good news is being tempered. One positive note through most of December has been the absence of fatality clusters at local skilled nursing centers and other congregant living sites for seniors. But as the county acknowledged Wednesday, that doesn’t mean the virus isn’t infiltrating local nursing homes again.

Kate Pack, health program manager of Sonoma County’s epidemiology team, said that since Dec. 8, 44 elder care facilities have reported at least one case among staff or residents, with 24 categorized as outbreaks — defined as three or more cases among staff, or one COVID-positive resident if the infection is determined to have been acquired on-site. Pack cited a total of between 243 and 249 cases here during the month in senior homes, including 137 in Santa Rosa and 59 in Petaluma.