Katie Dowd

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Crews on North Bay Fires Catch a Break as Red Flag Warning Expires

A red flag warning was cancelled by the National Weather Service Monday, but crews on the LNU Lightning Complex in the North Bay are still prepared for the possibility of dry lightning Monday morning and afternoon, as thunderstorms move across Northern California.

Remnants of a tropical storm that pushed into Central California overnight were forecast to deliver a nasty mix of dry lightning and erratic winds and amplify fire activity. The storm cells traveled across Monterey County and pushed across the Santa Cruz Mountains, but they mostly carried high amounts of moisture into the region and even dropped small amounts of rainfall, helping suppress fire activity. Although the warning for high winds and lightning storms has now expired, the NWS still urges vigilance.

“Stay weather aware as weak cells are still over the North Bay; however, most moisture has moved north of our area and instability has decreased giving us confidence to let the warning expire early,” the NWS said Mondayat 9:30 a.m.

That National Weather Service said the Bay Area has mostly dodged the storm.

“There’s still a chance of an isolated thunderstorm, generating gusty, erratic winds and lightning for San Francisco Bay and the North Bay through the morning,” said NWS meteorologist Will Pi. “It looks like the instability on this one was far less than the one we had last week. This is a more typical summer thunderstorm.”

The complex of fires was 341,243 acres with 21% containment before nightfall Sunday, and as of this morning it was 350,030 with 22% containment.

The Walbridge Fire, which was 0% contained on Sunday morning, is now up to 5%; the blaze west of Healdsburg in Sonoma County. The Meyers Fire, north of Jenner in Sonoma County, is now 95% contained. Five damage assessment teams will be going into the burn areas of the Walbridge Fire today to determine how many structures were damaged or destroyed.

Officials cautioned residents to be ready to evacuate at a moment’s notice, as dry lightning could spark fires and high winds could quickly spread them.

“I can’t stress enough the importance of being prepared to leave,” Cal Fire unit chief Shana Jones said Sunday.

“If that tingling on the back of your neck says ‘I need to leave,’ then please do so,” she added. “Do not wait to be ordered to do so.”

Four civilians have died – three in Napa County and one in Solano County – 871 structures have been destroyed and 234 are damaged, as of Monday morning. Over 30,000 structures remain threatened.

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Here’s Why California’s Coronavirus Peak is still Projected for May.

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Despite encouraging signs that social distancing is working in California, where most residents are in their third week or more of sheltering at home, state officials are still projecting COVID-19 infections will peak in mid- to late May.

The reason for that is not because social distancing is failing — it’s an intended consequence of shelter in place. Social distancing is not meant to end the coronavirus outbreak; it’s meant to slow it down until a vaccine is widely available. By “flattening the curve,” California health officials hoped to buy time, preventing the type of overloading of the health care system that’s happening right now in New York City.

“We know that the bending or flattening of the curve means two things,” said Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of the California Health and Human Services Agency, on Tuesday. “It means our peak comes down, but it also means it goes further out. We move that lower and further out. So our thinking around May, and late May in particular, means it follows this idea of flattening. It’s not just a reduction down, it’s moving it out.”

A consequence of flattening the curve — unfortunately for those hoping to leave home soon — is that it lengthens the duration of the outbreak. This, however, is a tradeoff most governments are willing to make. The alternative, where people are allowed to leave their homes unfettered, means many people will become sick at the same time. Hospitals, already under strain, won’t have the supplies or beds to care for everyone. This worst-case scenario occurred in Italy, where resource-strapped doctors reported having to decide which patients lived or died.

ALSO: How California’s coronavirus outbreak compares to other states

“I’ve talked about the curve bending but also stretching,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Tuesday. “And that’s why I just want to impress upon people that our modeling shows that we’re not at peak in a week or two. That we are seeing a slow and steady increase, but it’s moderate. And it’s moderate, again, because of the actions all of you have taken.”

One country that did briefly consider shortening its coronavirus timeline was the United Kingdom. U.K. officials floated the possibility of allowing up to 60% of the population to contract COVID-19, thus achieving “herd immunity.” At that point, enough individuals would be sickened and recover from the virus that transmission slows to an eventual halt.

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California Coronavirus Cases are Doubling Faster than Expected, Surge likely on the Way

Confirmed coronavirus cases are increasing faster than initially expected, California officials said, indicating the much-anticipated surge may be on the way.

“We originally thought that it would be doubling every six to seven days. We see cases doubling every three to four days,” California Secretary of Health and Human Services Dr. Mark Ghaly said at a news conference Wednesday. Ghaly said at that rate, he expects hospitals will see a surge in one to two weeks.

As of Thursday morning, California has over 3,000 confirmed cases, far behind the U.S. coronavirus epicenter of New York. New York City alone has over 21,000 cases and the state is reporting nearly 400 deaths as hospitals reportedly face “apocalyptic” conditions. Ghaly said, at this rate, California now is on pace to match New York’s numbers.

Preparing for the worst-case scenario is on the minds of California politicians, who are warning residents to stay vigilant.

“The worst days are still ahead,” Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said on Wednesday.

In a press conference yesterday, San Francisco Mayor London Breed and Dr. Grant Colfax, the city’s public health director, said San Francisco hospitals need 1,500 more ventilators and 5,000 additional hospital beds to prepare for a potential influx of serious coronavirus cases in the city.

Breed said she reached out to Vice President Mike Pence and the Trump administration about securing additional resources.

“I hope they will deliver for the people of this state and the people of this country,” she said. “Time cannot be wasted on interactions that don’t lead to the kinds of results we need.”

Colfax spoke to the measures San Francisco has already taken, noting that the city has hired 80 new nurses, begun preparing non-hospital locations for patients, continued to obtain additional personal protective equipment supplies, and decreased the number of in-hospital visits for non-critical cases.

The city is preparing for “a scenario like what is playing out in New York this very day,” Colfax said.