Donald Trump is planning to implement a total ban on transgender service members and recruits on “Day One,” according to Defense Department insiders, which will have massive costs that affect both military preparedness and the DoD’s bottom line.

A total trans ban will cost the Pentagon at least $18 billion, according to Emily “Hawking” Shilling, president of SPARTA, a leading trans military advocacy organization.

The group estimates 73% of the 15,000 transgender service members in the U.S. military are senior enlisted personnel with 12 to 21 years of experience. The total operational investment in them is up to $176,000 per year per person, adding up to an $18 billion capital investment.

That figure is in addition to a $1 billion estimate to recruit and train replacements for those discharged under a potential ban, according to a study by the Palm Center.

“Abruptly discharging 15,000-plus service members, especially given that the military’s recruiting targets fell short by 41,000 recruits last year, adds administrative burdens to war-fighting units, harms unit cohesion, and aggravates critical skill gaps,” Shilling told Erin in the Morning. “There would be a significant financial cost, as well as a loss of experience and leadership that will take possibly 20 years and billions of dollars to replace.”

In his first term, Trump issued a memorandum banning transgender individuals from military service, citing a “financial burden.” The Biden Administration then overturned the ban. 

Shilling said savings in healthcare costs per transgender service member would amount to about $650 annually, or $8 million in savings each year. 

The Pentagon’s budget for 2023 was $820.3 billion, or roughly 13.3% of the federal budget.

Shilling said the most immediate impact of a total trans ban would be on military preparedness “in every theater of the world.”

“If it were a fairly fast-moving ban, you would be pulling these individuals out of their units, leaving critical gaps in skill sets, experience, and leadership positions that you’re just not going to be able to fill with equivalent people anytime soon, especially given the shortfalls in recruiting,” Shilling said.

Despite the rumors — the Trump transition maintains no decisions have been made on trans service members, campaign promises notwithstanding — Shilling is hopeful accommodations for trans personnel will be made.

“In the meantime,” she says, “nonprofit organizations are exploring every avenue to help,” including job transition assistance, healthcare funding, and legal support.

“The bottom line is that we are deployed, combat-ready volunteers, ready to do the nation’s business of supporting and defending it, and every individual in our country, no matter what their opinions or differences are,” Shilling said. “We fight as one.”

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