US President-elect Donald Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric concerning the rights of lesbian, gay, transgender and bisexual (LGBT) people is nothing new. His first term in office from 2017 until 2021 resulted in a wave of discriminatory measures aimed at limiting protections for LGBT people across the United States. Since then, state legislatures around the country have continued to pursue or pass draconian bills to limit the presence of LGBT people in public life, including rolling back freedoms for trans children. Senior Web Producer Paul Aufiero spoke with LGBT rights specialist Ryan Thoreson about what’s at stake under a second Trump presidency.

What does a second Trump term mean for the rights of LGBT people in the US?

Donald Trump’s first term gives us a glimpse of what we can likely expect to see this time around. He previously stacked his administration and the judiciary with people who are overtly hostile to LGBT rights. We saw the consequences of that in a lot of the administration’s policies and executive orders, including one that banned transgender people from serving in the US military.

Trump and other Republican Party candidates also targeted transgender people during the 2024 campaign, running anti-trans attack ads in various states and making absurd claims about schools performing gender surgeries on children. So I think we’re likely to see the federal government turn against trans people in the way that individual US states have in recent years.

How have US states already been curbing LGBT people’s rights?

Since about 2021, on the heels of the first Trump administration, there’s been a significant uptick in state legislatures proposing or passing laws targeting LGBT people, and trans kids in particular. Some of the worst trends involve denying trans children access to sports, barring them from appropriate bathroom facilities, and outing them to family members.

More than half of US states also prohibit transgender children from obtaining often life-saving, gender-affirming medical care. Major medical associations consider this type of care best practice for many transgender children, as it can alleviate a lot of the mental health stressors of gender dysphoria they can experience as they grow and their bodies change.

Some states have also sought to exclude transgender girls from participating in sports, including some imposing blanket bans. This has the detrimental effect that trans kids who are often bullied or face isolation at school can’t take part in and get the benefits of the teamwork and physical activity that school sports provide.

Seven states also limit or ban discussions of sexual orientation and gender identity in schools, and four more restrict whether and how same-sex activity can be discussed in schools. These laws are passed to prevent children from learning about diverse sexual orientations and gender identities, with little regard for the harmful effects that isolation and invisibility can have on young people who do or will identify as LGBT or have LGBT family members.

How could this kind of discrimination and erasure play out on the national stage under the next Trump administration?

Well, one example is Trump saying that he’ll outright ban gender-affirming care for minors in the US.

He also said he’ll ask Congress to establish that only two genders will be federally recognized. This would stop progress currently being made in the country to recognize non-binary individuals, which we’ve seen in federal and state efforts to allow people to choose a third gender option of “X” on passports, licenses, and other documents.

This is also problematic for trans people generally, as it lays the groundwork for laws and policies that Congress could pass. Some Republicans in Congress have already introduced legislation that would make providing gender-affirming care a crime in the US or that would prohibit transgender girls from playing sports nationwide.

Many of the changes proposed by lawmakers and Trump would exclude transgender students from Title IX protections, a federal law banning sex discrimination in federally funded educational institutions. This would affect school policies on students’ use of pronouns, bathrooms, and locker rooms.

Trump also said during the campaign that he would roll back federal policies prohibiting discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity. During his first term, his administration weakened some of these protections.

What about LGBT people’s rights globally?

Trump’s previous administration made some gestures toward respect for LGBT rights abroad, but they didn’t go far in terms of policy. The Biden administration went much farther, for example by promoting non-discrimination through State Department programming. The next Trump administration could roll some of that back.

Trump’s past unwillingness to discuss human rights issues with foreign leaders could prove very harmful to LGBT people abroad. As Russia, Hungary, and other governments pass anti-LGBT legislation – including laws that have cracked down on LGBT families, discussions of LGBT topics in public, and organizations working to promote LGBT people’s rights – the US voice on LGBT issues around the world could be lost.

How do you see your work changing?

I don’t think the guiding principles of Human Rights Watch’s work will change much. As we discussed, even under the Biden administration, we’ve been vocally critical of lawmakers at the state level passing legislation targeting trans kids and their families. We’ll also need to expand on work we did during the first Trump administration around erosions of non-discrimination protections and access to health care.

That said, I think one of the lessons from the first Trump administration is that there will be things that nobody expected. Banning trans people from the military was one of those. Advocates and LGBT people have to be nimble and responsive to threats as they come up.

What can LGBT people and advocates in the US do to prepare?

Over the next couple months, before the new administration takes office, people who feel they might be at risk should get their paperwork or documentation in order. That could be legal recognition of parentage or other family documentation. Many organizations are recommending that people shore up anything that bolsters legal recognition of their marriages, such as additional estate planning and powers of attorney. Also, if it’s important for someone to get a passport or birth certificate that reflects their gender identity, this is a good time to do that.

I think it’s important to prepare for institutions to be attacked. Lawmakers at the national level have proposed limiting federal funding for organizations that work on sexual and reproductive rights issues, including trans health and rights. Trump has likewise said that federal dollars shouldn’t go to institutions that promote “gender ideology.”

That could mean that comprehensive sexuality education may not be offered to LGBT, or any, kids through schools, so it will fall on community organizations and families to provide that education. And as books about LGBT people and issues may be removed from school and public libraries, donating resources or otherwise helping to fund and support community organizations that help marginalized LGBT communities might be helpful in the coming years.

Anything else we should look out for?

We talked about threats to gender-affirming care, but I think broader attacks on health care for LGBT people are likely to be a constant concern over the next four years.

The administration’s unwillingness to enforce civil rights could leave those alleging LGBT discrimination without much hope, especially if judges become more hostile to LGBT discrimination claims.

And having sex and gender defined federally as just that assigned at birth will likely exacerbate problems LGBT people already have in finding affordable, accessible care.

On a more positive note, watch out for opportunities to be an advocate and show support for LGBT people’s rights in any way you can. Many local organizations have been doing critical work meeting the needs of the most marginalized LGBT communities, and giving them your time, money, and energy goes a long way. Just being a vocal ally matters too. Supportive adults can make an enormous difference in LGBT kids’ mental health and well-being, and showing support is even more critical as policymaking and rhetoric become more hostile.

However you can, find ways to make a difference in your community to pave the way for stronger protections for human rights.