Donald Trump is reportedly planning to reinstate his trans military ban through executive order on his first day in office. Reports say the president-elect will not only bar trans people from joining but also that he plans to medically discharge the 15,000 trans personnel who are currently serving.

If carried out this way, the ban will be significantly harsher than the first time he banned trans people from the military in 2017, when trans people already serving were allowed to remain in their positions. Because the military is already experiencing recruitment issues, experts are worried the policy will significantly impair military readiness. 

“These people will be forced out at a time when the military can’t recruit enough people,” an anonymous source told The Times. “Only the Marine Corps is hitting its numbers for recruitment and some people who will be affected are in very senior positions.”

“Should a trans ban be implemented from day one of the Trump administration, it would undermine the readiness of the military and create an even greater recruitment and retention crisis,” added Rachel Branaman, executive director of Modern Military Association of America, “not to mention signaling vulnerability to America’s adversaries.”

“Abruptly discharging 15,000-plus service members, especially given that the military’s recruiting targets fell short by 41,000 recruits last year, adds administrative burdens to war fighting units, harms unit cohesion, and aggravates critical skill gaps,” she continued. “There would be a significant financial cost, as well as a loss of experience and leadership that will take possibly 20 years and billions of dollars to replace.”

A trans officer in the U.S. Air Force who also chose to remain anonymous expressed worry about filling highly skilled positions. “There are very few members of my career field with this experience, and in the event of a large-scale contingency, it would be difficult to replace the level of experience that I bring to the table.”

Trump-Vance transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt denied that Trump has any concrete plans to ban trans military members. “These unnamed sources are speculating and have no idea what they are actually talking about. No decisions on this issue have been made. No policy should ever be deemed official unless it comes directly from President Trump or his authorized spokespeople.”

The Obama administration opened up military service to transgender people in 2016, but in 2017, Trump announced a trans military ban via tweet. “Our military must be focused on decisive and overwhelming victory and cannot be burdened with the tremendous medical costs and disruption that transgender in the military would entail,” Trump declared.

How the ban would be implemented was unclear, since Trump had given the Pentagon no heads up that his tweet was coming.

The announcement was met with immediate opposition from Democrats and even some Republicans. Even the late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who dragged his feet over the repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, called it “a step in the wrong direction.” All four service chiefs also signaled their support for transgender service members. 

Federal courts issued injunctions against the ban. By 2018, the administration went back to the drawing board. This time, then-Vice President Mike Pence and anti-transgender activists Ryan Anderson and Tony Perkins helped shape a new approach.

This time around, the revised policy was able to succeed because the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the administration, overturning rulings against the ban from lower courts. As a result, the ban took effect in April 2019. It effectively prohibited trans people from enlisting and put multiple restrictions on trans military personnel who were already serving.

Trump consulted no military experts before announcing the ban. Though he claimed that trans healthcare was too expensive for the military, it was revealed that the military spends $41.6 million annually on the erectile dysfunction medication Viagra, around five to 20 times what it costs to fund trans-related healthcare.

President Joe Biden reversed the ban when he took office in 2021.