Despite significant spending by former President Donald Trump’s campaign and Republicans on anti-transgender ads, new research released Thursday by Ground Media shows that the ads are failing to influence voter preferences. However, these ads are succeeding in a different, more harmful way: They are eroding public support for transgender Americans and their rights.

Ground Media CEO David Rochkind told The Advocate in an interview that while the ads did not boost voter enthusiasm or mobilization for Trump, they did decrease public comfort with transgender people. “We found that there is a decrease of 3.1 percent among those folks who say they would be comfortable accepting a close friend or family member who is transgender,” Rochkind said. He also noted a 3.7 percent decline in support for gender-affirming care for transgender youth. “I find that incredibly damaging,” he added.

The ad in question portrays Vice PresidentKamala Harris as supporting taxpayer-funded gender-affirming surgeries for undocumented immigrants and prisoners, a point designed to inflame anti-transgender sentiment. It concludes with the divisive tagline “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you, and features prominent images of transgender figures within the Biden-Harris administration, including Assistant Secretary for Health Rachel Levine.

The ad follows similar tactics seen in right-wing rhetoric, focusing on Harris’s support for gender-affirming care as evidence of her “extremism.” However, advocates and experts have pointed out that this framing is not based on a factual understanding of transgender rights or the legal obligations to provide health care in prisons. Rochkind explained that the ad leverages fear and misunderstanding by focusing on issues that most people have no personal connection to, like prisoners and gender-affirming health care. “In this ad, they try and find the thing that is most different from anything that the audience could possibly understand,” Rochkind said. He added that the ad plays on the fact that most people “don’t understand what it means to be a prisoner” or the specifics of gender-affirming health care, making it easier to incite fear and discomfort — sentiments of “It seems so odd, it seems so different, I don’t know if I’m comfortable with that,” Rochkind explained.

GLAAD President Sarah Kate Ellis emphasized these ads’ negative impact on public discourse. “Tens of millions of dollars are being spent on ads that demonize and spread lies about transgender people, and it’s not earning one vote,” Ellis said.

Perhaps the most troubling finding from Ground Media’s study, which was released Thursday, was that the anti-trans ads reduced acceptance even among individuals who already knew a transgender person. “We think if you just knew somebody, you would get it, you would accept, you would get over everything — these ads push back on that,” Rochkind said. This backlash among potential allies highlights how powerful and harmful the narratives in these ads can be, especially when targeting groups already leaning toward acceptance of transgender individuals.

“After the election, trans Americans will have to deal with the dangerous fallout from the shameful lies and misinformation that far too many political candidates are intentionally spreading,” Ellis said.

Despite the harmful social impact, the ads have yet to succeed politically. Ground Media’s randomized controlled trial, which involved nearly 2,000 people, revealed no significant increase in support for Trump. “They’re not persuading people to vote for Trump,” Rochkind said, pointing out that the ads did not move the needle on voter choice, mobilization, or enthusiasm.

Transgender rights rank relatively low on the list of priorities for voters. According to a September Gallup survey, only 18 percent of registered voters consider candidates’ positions on transgender rights “extremely important” when deciding their vote for president. By comparison, 52 percent of voters rank the economy as “extremely important,” followed closely by democracy in the U.S. at 49 percent. 

According to a separate survey conducted by Data for Progress, 54 percent of likely voters believe that political attack ads targeting the transgender community have become “mean-spirited and out of hand.” Voters, the survey suggests, are more concerned about core issues such as inflation and the economy than the divisive cultural battles around transgender rights.

While the ads are failing to achieve their intended political outcomes, they are leaving lasting scars on the social landscape. The decline in support for transgender rights, health care access, and acceptance — particularly among potential allies — presents a serious challenge for advocates fighting to protect and expand transgender rights in the United States.

Rochkind emphasized the importance of truthful storytelling in combating misinformation and disinformation. In partnership with GLAAD, Ground Media has been working on campaigns like “Here We Are,” which focus on real stories of transgender people and their families. “We found that [these ads] increase acceptance, increase support for policy, and increase belief that being transgender is real,” he said.

The ads have been running in battleground states such as Michigan, Florida, and Texas, showcasing transgender Americans and their families, according to Ground Media. The campaign garnered 25 million impressions and 3 million video views in Michigan alone. Nadya Lopez, a transgender woman featured in one of the ads with her father, said, “Transgender people just want to live their lives free from fear … our lives are filled with joy, and we are not going anywhere.”