Uganda’s recently-adopted anti-LGBTQ+ law could have cost the country as much as $1.6 billion (£1.23 billion) in the year since it was approved by parliament.

The Anti-Homosexuality Act (AHA), which carries the death sentence for “aggravated homosexuality”, was signed into law by president Yoweri Museveni in May 2023. Homosexuality was already illegal in Uganda, but the new legislation strengthened the law, including by criminalising the “promotion” of homosexuality.

In the year since it came into effect, queer Ugandans have faced a major increase in abuse, including beatings, attacks and arrests.

Now, in a new study, Open for Business has estimated that the law has cost the country between £470 million (£360 million) and $1.6 billion. That’s between 0.9 and 3.2 per cent of its gross domestic product, the standard measure of the value created through the production of goods and services in a country during a certain period.

The losses include foreign direct investment, international aid, trade and tourism.

The AHA has faced criticism from activists, celebrities and politicians worldwide, with US president Joe Biden vowing to cut economic ties with Uganda.

Open for Business, which researches the economic effects of anti-LGBTQ+ policies, said the combined losses over a five-year period could rise higher still – possibly to a staggering $8.3 billion (£6.4 billion).

“This represents an inflection point for the country’s economy. The potential loss of talent and productivity, coupled with heightened stigma and discrimination, further deepens Uganda’s economic vulnerabilities and undermines efforts to diversify the economy and strengthen public health services,” the coalition of global companies said.

The new legislation fuelled a spike in abuse towards LGBTQ+ people within months of being passed. Last year, the Convening for Equality coalition reported 306 rights violations based on the victims’ sexual orientation and gender identity, between January and August last year.

Queer Ugandan human rights activist Arthur Kayima branded the law “vile”, adding: “Rather than focusing on the real issues Uganda is facing, Museveni [causes] distraction by attacking our fundamental right to exist.”